Event Forecasting on PredictIt

Visualizing My $50 Portfolio's Performance with D3.js

PredictIt is an online prediction market, which allows users to buy "yes" or "no" contracts on the outcome of political events. Before the event occurs, owned contracts can be sold at a profit or a loss. After the event occurs, the prediction market resolves, and each winning contract receives $1.00.

In February 2019, I created an account and decided to track the performance of my initial $50.00 deposit. While my own political opinions often align with my bets, I have tried to focus on buying undervalued contracts. Therefore, the data displayed here are not necessarily a reflection of my personal opinions.

This page uses PredictIt's account history export to find my recent trades, Pandas to manipulate the data, and D3.js to display my results.

Contracts
Owned

$9.01

Cash
Available

$51.36

Total
Portfolio

$60.37

Change in
Portfolio Value

$10.37

Last Account History Update: April 23, 2020 11:39PM

Portfolio Value since February 2019
Current Portfolio
Who will win the 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses?
Total Investment:
$4.53
View Market
My Last Trade:
2020-01-06
Klobuchar
10 Yes Shares
Total Traded:
$32.20 | 350 Shares
My Last Trade:
2020-01-12
Warren
10 Yes Shares
Total Traded:
$2.02 | 12 Shares
My Last Trade:
2019-10-27
Biden
5 No Shares
Total Traded:
$12.00 | 15 Shares
My Last Trade:
2019-09-30
Clinton
5 No Shares
Total Traded:
$4.80 | 5 Shares
My Last Trade:
2019-11-01
Sanders
5 No Shares
Total Traded:
$11.42 | 15 Shares
My Last Trade:
2019-11-07
Yang
5 No Shares
Total Traded:
$14.10 | 15 Shares
Who will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination?
Total Investment:
$4.49
View Market
My Last Trade:
2020-01-08
Warren
10 Yes Shares
Total Traded:
$2.55 | 20 Shares
My Last Trade:
2019-08-06
Biden
5 No Shares
Total Traded:
$3.55 | 5 Shares
My Last Trade:
2019-10-02
Buttigieg
5 Yes Shares
Total Traded:
$1.39 | 15 Shares
My Last Trade:
2019-10-02
Clinton
5 No Shares
Total Traded:
$4.60 | 5 Shares
My Last Trade:
2019-12-27
Klobuchar
5 Yes Shares
Total Traded:
$4.30 | 85 Shares
My Last Trade:
2019-07-27
Yang
5 No Shares
Total Traded:
$15.40 | 17 Shares
Monthly and Total Return
by Month
Month EoM Value Monthly Return Total Return
2020-01 $60.37 3.2% 20.7%
2019-12 $58.52 10.2% 17.0%
2019-11 $53.10 7.3% 6.2%
2019-10 $49.50 8.0% -1.0%
2019-09 $45.82 -34.0% -8.4%
2019-08 $69.47 18.2% 38.9%
2019-07 $58.76 20.9% 17.5%
2019-06 $48.62 4.3% -2.8%
2019-05 $46.63 2.3% -6.7%
2019-04 $45.57 -10.4% -8.9%
2019-03 $50.87 2.4% 1.7%
2019-02 $49.66 -0.7% -0.7%
Value of Contracts Traded (Volume)
and Return by Month
Best Market Performances by Value!

$10.14

Will Andrew Yang participate in the December Democratic debate?

Final Trade:
2019-12-10

Trades:
92

$7.11

Will Sherrod Brown run for president in 2020?

Final Trade:
2019-03-07

Trades:
20

$4.23

Will Tulsi Gabbard participate in the December Democratic debate?

Final Trade:
2019-12-09

Trades:
28

$4.15

How many Democrats will have dropped out by Nov. 30?

Final Trade:
2019-11-21

Trades:
82

$3.65

Will Mueller mention "Clinton" in open House hearing on July 24?

Final Trade:
2019-07-24

Trades:
10

Worst Market Performances by Value...

$-22.71

How many Democrats will drop out by Aug. 31?

Final Trade:
2019-09-01

Trades:
380

$-13.03

How many Senate-confirmed Cabinet members will leave between 11/19 and 3/31?

Final Trade:
2019-04-01

Trades:
1620

$-9.86

How many candidates will participate in December Democratic debate?

Final Trade:
2019-12-10

Trades:
120

$-3.23

Which of these 13 members of Trump’s Cabinet will leave next?

Final Trade:
2020-01-09

Trades:
50

$-3.13

Who will win the 2020 South Carolina Democratic primary?

Final Trade:
2019-12-07

Trades:
86